Vol.
25, No. 2 June 1999
Articles:
Economic
Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern
United States
Serge Coulombe and Kathleen M. Day
This
paper compares the evolution of regional disparaties in per capita
incomes in Canada and the 12 American states along Canada's southern
border.
The
phenomenon of capital accumulation as described by the neoclassical
growth model can explain much of the observed decline in regional
dispersion in Canada relative to the northern states. However, it
appears that Canadians are more likely than residents of the northern
states to remain in regions where they do not have jobs, a factor
which contributes to the persistently higher level of regional dispersion
of output per capita in Canada.
Poverty
Intensity: How Well Do Canadian Provinces Compare?
Lars Osberg and Kuan Xu
This
paper uses estimates of the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon measure of poverty
intensity in Canadian provinces, and the 95 percent confidence interval
surrounding such estimates, for 1984, 1989 and 1991-96 to compare
Canadian provinces over time and internationally. Coinciding with
a more general social assistance support, poverty intensity in Ontario
declined in the late 1980s to a level similar to Northern Europe,
but since 1994 cuts to social assistance have coincided with a significant
rise in poverty intensity. Prince Edward Island has done relatively
well in reducing poverty intensity. Nationally, the 1980s were a period
of declining poverty intensity, but these gains have been eroded since
1994.
Campaign
Dynamics in the 1997 Canadian Election
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte
The
paper uses the 1997 Canadian Election Study (CES) to determine whether
there were significant dynamics in the 1997 Canadian election and
to provide an assessment of the two key events of the campaign: the
televised leader debates and the "Quebec" Reform Party ad.
The data indicate that both events had a substantial impact on vote
intentions but that the impact was only temporary. Their final effect
on the outcome of the election was negligible. The data also indicate
that, irrespective of these two events, Reform made some gains during
the campaign, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.
Moonlighting
Trends and Related Policy Issues in Canada and the United States
Jean Kimmel and Lisa M. Powell
The
purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed Canada-United States
cross-country comparison of moonlighting trends and to assess the
possible underlying causes of such trends. The statistics show that
both countries have experienced strong increases in moonlighting rates
for women, never-married individuals, young persons, and service workers,
while university-educated persons consistently have maintained high
rates. United States' moonlighters remain more likely to combine a
full-time job with a part-time job, while Canadians are increasingly
becoming holders of multiple part-time jobs. We examine the degree
to which changes in moonlighting rates are driven by labour force
compositional effects, labour supply-side factors, and labour demand-side
factors. Labour market policy recommendations are made with respect
to welfare-to-work transitions and child care, payroll taxes, and
non-wage benefits.
The
Price of Compromise: Why We Should Wind Down Our Forest Industry
John Cartwright
Canada's
forest industry faces two major problems. Biologically, the liquidation
of the natural boreal forest and its replacement by even-aged stands
of a limited number of species poses major risks of reducing biodiversity,
and changing climatic and water-flow patterns. Economically, the slow
rate of growth of the boreal forest means that any investment in replanting
makes little sense, but without replanting we will run out of wood
in the next few decades. On both biological and economic grounds,
then, we need to make major changes in our forest industry, specifically
by retaining sufficient portions of the natural forest so that if
our attempts at artificial regeneration fail, we will have sources
for the long-term natural regrowth of our forests. This will entail
a shift in focus to high-quality wood supplies, and to an increased
emphasis on the non-consumptive uses of the forest.
L'ouverture
du marché d'exportation d'électricité québécoise:
réalité ou mirage à l'horizon?
Jean-Thomas Bernard et Joseph A. Doucet
Worldwide
the electricity industry is undergoing a substantial process of restructuring.
The most significant aspect of this process is the introduction of
competition in the production sector. The principal objective is cost
reduction, which should eventually lead to lower electricity prices.
In the United States bulk power markets, that is, markets involving
transactions between producers and distributors, have been open since
the beginning of 1997. Hydro-Québec believes that this opening
represents an opportunity for it to increase its sales in the northeastern
US. This belief is based in large part on the considerable differences
between electricity prices in the latter market and in Quebec. In
this paper we outline two factors which we believe will limit profitable
exports of electricity by Hydro-Québec. The first is the fact
that transmission on Hydro-Québec's grid must now be priced
at the average system cost. The second is the fact that Hydro-Québec's
domestic tariffs continue to be pegged to the average cost of production
which is lower than the system marginal cost. This implicitly encourages
domestic consumption rather than exports. Both of these factors illustrate
the importance of correct price signals for efficient resource allocation.
Should
Provinces Expand Gambling?
Lennart E. Henriksson and Richard G. Lipsey
State-sponsored
gambling is now widespread in both Canada and the United States. The
purpose of this paper is to provide a critical analysis of gambling
as a revenue-raising instrument for government. We begin by outlining
key principles, and then demonstrate how a realistic appraisal of
the economic and employment effects of expansion can be achieved.
Next, we evaluate gambling as a source of revenue and jobs. A discussion
of cost issues and a brief treatment of First Nations' gambling follows.
Recommendations complete the paper.
